On August 17, 2002, Scott Born posted an e-mailed message to the Celeration Society listserv members asking whether anyone was charting on the Standard Celeration Chart new confirmed cases of West Nile Virus in humans.

That is the starting point for this correspondence, which now numbers well over 75 items, many with charts, and some raising questions about methodology, improvements in charting and other related matters. Since we are somewhat slower than we wish in getting the entire corrspondence posted here, you may go to ARCHIVES OF THE SC LISTSERV to obtain the entire correspondence. Note, that these archives have the West Nile Virus correspondence indexed under at least two different headings, by month. You have to poke around to get it all.

The projection of a best-fit celeration line through the early data points indicated even then, in the middle August, 2002, that the CDC was at least 25% off on its then estimate (750) of total confirmed WNV cases for the year 2002, and that total number of confirmed deaths from WNV would also far exceed CDC estimates made then. It would be interesting to take the cases on a state-by-state basis and analyse the data using the Standard Celeration Chart. This has yet, as of October 5, 2002, to be done. As of November 15, the total number of confirmed cases stand at 3619. The CDC's one public prediction was not repeated.

No one could, of course, say on August 17 with any certainty, that charting on the Standard Celeration Chart would provide a more accurate prediction than any other method. If true, that has only become true with the passage of time, at least for this interval. This is bottom-up, not top-down, science: inductive, not deductive. For those properly worried about the spread of this dangerous disease, charting on the Standard Celeration Chart seems to have virtue as a means for predicting outcomes. However, no warranties are expressed or implied as to the fitness of the Standard Celeration Chart for this particular purpose: next year may be different. Besides, you should form your own judgment.

The main virtue of Charting lies not so much with the people doing the charting, as with the method itself. The Chart is neutral, although its proper use requires thought and skill.

The foregoing disclaimer notwithstanding, the virtue of the people doing this particular charting, Scott Born and Stuart Harder, was that they were curious enough to see just how WNV would in fact develop as compared with the projections of best-fit celeration lines through the plotted data. For this we are in their debt, both for their continuing efforts, the startling results produced, and the energetic comments and suggestions of others that continue on the SC listserv.

This first series will include correspondence found in the Archives of the SC listserv from August 17 to September 18, 2002. There was a great deal of correspondence on other matters during this time, much of it by the same correspondents.

The ARCHIVES OF THE STANDARD CELERATION SOCIETY have the (now extensive) continuation of the correspondence posted here, by month and topic. This link includes instructions on joining and leaving the Standard Celeration Society listserv, the use of its digest, and other such matters.